Gavin McKenna will presumably be the first overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft — a consensus expectation — however, the story won’t just be about having one more generational talent in the league. At 17, McKenna represents a shift in how elite prospects chart their paths. Last season, McKenna tallied 129 points in 56 games with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League (WHL), drawing comparisons to dynamic NHL wingers like Patrick Kane and Nikita Kucherov.
McKenna created headlines with his decision to commit to Penn State University’s men’s hockey program instead of remaining in the Canadian junior ranks. McKenna chose not to stay in the Canadian Hockey League for another dominant season, but to instead enter NCAA college hockey, competing as an 18‑year‑old freshman in the Big Ten against older, stronger players.
McKenna announced on SportsCenter: “It was a super tough decision. There are a lot of really great options out there. But me, my family and everyone in my circle decided that the best spot for me next year is Penn State.”
What’s Changed in the Prospect Landscape
Several new rules and shifts made McKenna’s decision possible. Particularly, in November 2024, the NCAA voted to allow Canadian junior players to maintain eligibility for Division I college hockey, even if they play in the CHL — provided they aren’t paid more than “actual and necessary expenses.” A move that marked the end of a longstanding rule that forced hockey prospects to choose either Canadian juniors or NCAA hockey. Similarly, the NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) landscape has expanded/evolved to allow athletes to allow for players to benefit financially from college athletics. In McKenna’s case, his Penn State NIL deal is reported to be around $700,000. Which far exceeded offers from runner-up schools, like Michigan State, which had offered a deal in the $200,000‑$300,000 range. Any of the deals that NCAA schools gave to McKenna would far exceeded anything that he, or other similar prospects, could have received if he remained in the CHL which forbids the payment of “salaries” to players and instead allows only for the payment of living expenses and small monthly stipends.
What This Means for College vs. Canadian Junior Paths
McKenna’s choice could represent a new kind of path for elite Canadian players. Many high‑profile prospects will still play in the CHL, which remains very competitive and has a long history of producing NHL talent. But now, with CHL players’ NCAA eligibility preserved, there’s an option to move to college hockey either just before or after being drafted, allowing prospects to weigh developmental style, strength of competition and growth opportunities. College hockey offers playing against older and more physically developed players, fewer games which may allow more time for training and college life outside the rink. CHL offers a heavier schedule more similar to the professional grind and more games at a younger age. The ability to earn significant amounts of money in College Hockey (close to what an entry level deal in the NHL would look like – in McKenna’s case) will likely entice more players to follow Mckenna’s path. Each has distinct pros and cons.
Looking Ahead
McKenna is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. McKenna’s decision to go to college means he’ll spend a season facing older/tougher competition before moving to the NHL, following a trajectory that’s been successful for other top prospects.
Penn State, meanwhile, is widely expected to benefit not just on the ice but off it: from increased visibility, fan engagement, and recruiting power. The school’s investment in its program coupled with McKenna’s commitment could mark a shift in what elite players consider when choosing between CHL and NCAA.
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